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Annual International Conference on Real Options: Theory Meets Practice

5th Annual Real Options Conference

Los Angeles
Anderson School
of Management, UCLA

Friday: Software Development and Network Expansion Options | Valuing Oil Development Investments | Keynote Address: Eduardo Schwartz | Valuing Natural Resource and Transportation Investments | Competition and Strategic Investments | Practitioner Panel Discussion
Saturday: Switching Options | Information, Incomplete Information, and Non-Traded Assets | Private Information and Incentives | Modelling and Numerical Analysis | Academic Panel Discussion


Software Development and Network Expansion Options
Chairperson: Blake Johnson (
Stanford U.)

Daricha Techopitayakul and Blake Johnson (Stanford U.), ASP-based Software Delivery: A Real Options Analysis

Application Service Provider (ASP) is a recently emerged software delivery model under which an ASP hosts, manages and delivers software as a service to customers via the Internet or a private network. The ASP model offers benefits from cost savings, specialized expertise, a faster time to market, and a reduced risk due to a lower capital investment. Buying services also provides more financial and technological flexibility than owning the technology in-house. However, customers who are unsure about the value of ASP services and their demands, in terms of the number of users and a usage level, may be reluctant to commit to ASP contracts. Many customers are also concerned with security and loss of control and performance, especially when the software becomes more critical as the company grows. Thus, for the ASP industry to move forward, ASPs must help customers cope with these uncertainties and risks. In this paper we propose three real options based approaches. First, in order to deal with the uncertainties of software value and usage level, we propose a usage-based pricing structure with an option to switch to a flat subscription fee. This arrangement allows ASPs to penetrate the low-usage market and to link their revenue to the value customers receive from their software, while still providing an upper bound on customers™ cost. Second, we evaluate an option to bring the software in-house after an initial period of ASP-based access. In addition to allowing customers to manage the risk created by uncertainty in their usage level, the number of users and the value per usage that the software will provide, this option allows customers to hedge against assuming an unacceptable level of security and performance risk. Implicitly, the option to bring software in-house is a growth option for a company to invest fully in the software should it become desirable to do so. Lastly, we analyze an option to end an ASP contract prior to its expiration, including when customers are under a minimum usage requirement and a minimum time commitment. This exit option allows customers to manage their software investments when they are unsure of the value of the software. It also alleviates the risks of relying on certain technologies and service providers, which may be especially valuable in a fast-changing technology environment, and when dealing with early-stage ASPs. As a result, this option illustrates the value of technological flexibility that ASP-based software delivery offers relative to an in-house implementation. In order to study these real options, we identify the three key underlying uncertainties to be software value per usage, usage level and the number of users. We then employ a mean reverting process with a time-varying mean and a time varying variance to model these uncertainties and their correlations. This method allows us to pattern after a software cycle, a learning effect, a company growth and the correlations between software benefit and usage. Finally, we utilize a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to approximate the option values and the exercise thresholds of these real options.


Hakan Erdogmus (National Research Council of Canada), Management of License Cost Uncertainty in Software Development

Software development based on Commercial Off-the-Shelf products is subject to multiple sources of uncertainty. One potential source of uncertainty is the license costs of the COTS product used in the system. The management of such uncertainty requires strategies that effectively mitigate the underlying risk with minimal impact on the economic value generated. This paper presents such a strategy, and shows how it can be evaluated using a state-of-the-art financial valuation technique, namely, real options analysis.

Maria Inès De Miranda (Stanford U.), Analysis of Investment Opportunities for Network Expansion Projects

This paper provides a strong conceptual framework to analyze investment decisions for network expansion problems. Specifically, we develop an algorithm to find the optimal time to open a new segment in an already existing network. Segment demand is uncertaint and capital investments are high; hence, the investment decision is non-trivial.
Due to the network environment, the decision to open a new segment cannot be analyzed as an indipendent one: the network externalities that arise both in the price and cost functions influence the project value and the optimal investment policies. Furthermore, the inclusion of a new segment also increases the value of the network as a whole, which augments the benefits of expansion. Finally, future growth should also be taken into account in the expansion model; that is, the option to open further segments branching out from the current one not only adds strategic value to the segment itself, but will in general also generate new network effects.
The model starts by quantifying the effects that network structures have on segment economics, including both price and cost. For a given network, a real options approach is then taken to derive expressions for the optimal time to add a segment, the option value of the expansion opportunities, and the sensitivity of these results to the key parameters of the analysis. We show that, for positive network externalities, an increase in the network size both raises the option value and lowers the demand level at which it is optimal to add the segment. Future growth options are then incorporated by expanding the analysis to a sequential capacity expansion framework with different underlying stochastic processes for each new segment.

Valuing Oil Development Investments
Chairperson: Robert McDonald (Northwestern U.)

J. McCormack (SVP Stern Stewart), D. Calistrate and G. Sick (U. of Calgary), Applying Real Options to Assessing Proven Undeveloped Petroleum Reserves

The oil industry was among the first of the large industries both to adopt discounted cash flow methods in valuing assets and projects. Discounted cash flow (DCF) tools are fundamental to engineering and financial analysis in the oil industry. They are well understood by managers and generally provide accurate valuations of developed hydrocarbon reserves. Unfortunately, DCF techniques systematically undervalue undeveloped reserves. Moreover, they may encourage premature development of certain reserves, and may also fail to identify important risk management opportunities.
Managers in the oil industry have long been aware that the market value of individual oil properties, not to mention entire E&P companies, is usually greater than the value of their discounted cash flows. This is particularly true in cases where there are significant quantities of undeveloped reserves. For this reason, E&P managers have often been willing to pay a premium above a DCF value for some undefinable "upside" associated with undeveloped reserves.
Unfortunately, the analytical discipline usually imposed by the DCF method is lost when managers value properties or companies on the basis of rules-of-thumb or simple intuition.
Real option models address these shortcomings. Though more complex than traditional DCF analysis, real option models provide a far more complete picture of not only reserve values but also the drivers of that value. Proven undeveloped reserves (PUDs) lend themselves to real option analysis because owners of PUDs have the right, but not the obligation, to develop those reserves in the future, so that the total value of a PUD includes both a DCF value plus some additional option or "volatility" value. There is a sound economic reason to assess undeveloped reserves at more than their DCF value, and real options
models provide the means to do so.

Marco A.G. Dias (Petrobras, Brasil), Investment in Information for Oil Field Development Using Evolutionary Approach with Monte Carlo Simulation

Consider an undeveloped oilfield with uncertainty about the size and quality of its reserves. There are some alternatives to invest in information to reduce the risk and to reveal some characteristics of the reserve. This paper presents an evolutionary real options model of optimization under uncertainty with genetic algorithms and Monte Carlo simulation, to select the best alternative of investment in information.
There is a legal time to expiration of the option to start the investment for the oilfield development. The model considers both the technical uncertainties revealed by the information and the market uncertainty using two different stochastic processes for the oil prices, which are simulated.
Monte Carlo simulations evaluate the decision rule curves generated in the evolutionary process. The process evolves toward a near optimum solution, giving the real option value and the optimal decision rule. The evolutionary programming under uncertainty was performed in C++ environment with good results and a description of
the programming procedure is provided.

Albino L. d´Almeida, Ivo F. Lopez and Marco A.G. Dias (Petrobras, Brasil), Oil Drilling Rig Fleet Decisions

The oil drilling activity is complex, involving onshore and offshore units, for perforation and production, of great or small size and with extremely varying degrees of technological complexity. It is a risk business due to work with high costs and remuneration highly variable in time, function of market conditions (oil barrel price and availability of equivalent rigs). Also, it has significant weight in the composition of exploitation and development costs of a field. The Real Options Theory considers the technical and economic uncertainty, the flexibility in the managerial decision-making, the irreversibility (total or partial) of investments and the waiting value, that is, to wait for better conditions or new information.
This work presents a study for the oil drilling rig owner to decide among options (operation, temporary suspension, exit from the business) function of freight charge values (day rate). Operational, acquisition, suspension, maintenance, reactivation and abandonment costs are considered; and also, volatility, dividend rates and capital attractiveness rates. Thus, it is possible to determine the adequate composition of the oil drilling rig fleet, departing from the determination of day-rate ranges for each type of drilling rig and to make an optimum decision (abandonment, temporary suspension, operation, reactivation or reentry/expansion). It is reached the most adequate rig fleet composition, from the determination of the optimal switches - the threshold points - among the alternatives (entry, operation, suspension, exit, reactivation) and the correspondent day-rate intervals to each rig type. Two sets of complex partial differential equations are generated to represent the policy options and general conditions and they are solved by numerical methods. Finally a sensitivity analysis is performed varying the values of the previous deterministic variables and showing their effect on both the optimal decision rule and the value of rig considering the embedded options.

Luncheon Keynote Address by Eduardo Schwartz (University of California at Los Angeles)
Rational Pricing of Internet Companies

Professor Schwartz is the California Professor of Real Estate and Professor of Finance at UCLA's Anderson Graduate School of Management. Previously he taught at the University of British Columbia and was visiting at the London Business School and the University of California at Berkeley. He received a Masters and a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of British Columbia.

Professor Schwartz has been President of the American Finance Association and the Western Finance Association. He has been associate editor for more than a dozen journals, including the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial Economics and JFQA, and is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Professor Schwartz has made significant contributions on various dimensions in asset and securities pricing, such as interest rate models, asset allocation issues, evaluating natural resource investments, pricing Internet companies, and the stochastic behaviour of commodity prices. Dr. Schwartz (with Michael Brennan) has been one of the early pioneers in real options, starting with the classic work on the valuation of a mine, to commodity claims, R&D and Internet company valuation and other contributions.

He won a number of awards for teaching excellence and for the quality of his published work.

Dr. Schwartz has also been a consultant to governmental agencies, banks, investment banks and industrial corporations.

Valuing Natural Resource and Transportation Investments
Chairperson: Michael Brennan (UCLA)

Katia Rocha,
Ajax R.B. Moreira, Leonardo Carvalho and Eustàquio Reis (IPEA/DIMAC, Brasil), The Option Value of Forest Concessions in Amazon Reserves

The Brazilian government is now planning to implement natural forest concessions for timber extraction. In addition to the legal requirements imposed on the management of concessions (minimum reserves, maximum extraction rates, etc.), the value of concessions is closely linked with uncertainties in estimates of the volume of commercial logs within the concession area and on future timber prices.
This paper proposes a method to appraise the value of forest concessions based on the real option theory (ROT). By combining the hypothesis of uncertainty in the volume of logs in a concession, logs prices modeled as a mean-reverting stochastic process, and applying inter-temporal maximization of profits, the method provides a more realistic estimate of the market value of concessions than does Net Present Value (NPV), which does not take these uncertainties into account.
Comparison between estimates using NPV and ROT shows that the latter are systematically higher. For the base case, the concession value using ROT is 153% higher. Since forest concessions are public resources, differences of that magnitude cannot be neglected. The paper also proposes methods to estimate the probability distribution of logging volumes in concession areas along with future prices. The volume distribution is specified in a spatial model as a function of geographic characteristics of the area as well of the neighboring areas.

Michael Samis (U. British Columbia), Multi-zone Mine Valuation

Modern asset pricing (MAP; commonly known as real options valuation) has been used as an alternative to discounted cash flow (DCF) methods in the mining industry to improve the representation of project structure within project valuation models. Previous mining applications of MAP have tended to treat the ore deposit as a homogenous entity as opposed to a heterogenous one in which the deposit can be subdivided into zones differentiated by size, quality and location. This is an inadequate approach for some mining applications because management may implement operating strategies that capitalize on geological structure such as selective zone closure in response to low mineral prices.
This paper introduces a project structure model that reflects the heterogenous nature of mineral deposits by representing the project as a real asset portfolio in which each zone represents a portfolio asset. The project is operated in discrete intervals by choosing, at the start of each interval, an operating mode from a set of competing operating modes. Each mode specifies the combinations of zones that will be active and the amount of project capacity that is built, abandoned or temporarily closed. A two-zone mining example is used to demonstrate the proposed model and show how operating strategies that capitalize on
geological structure can add value.

Gonzalo Cortazar and Alvaro Reyes (Catholic University of Chile), Option Markets and the Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices

Pricing and risk management of commodity-contingent assets requires an adequate specification and estimation of the risk-adjusted underlying stochastic commodity prices. Recent efforts include Gibson, R, Schwartz, E. S. (1990), Schwartz, E. S. (1997), Schwartz, E. S., Smith, J.E. (2001), and Cortazar et al (2000) among many others. A shared attribute of all of them is their reliance only on linear payout assets (futures and sometimes swaps) for estimation purposes.
The benefit of using futures prices is that they trade in a relatively deep market. On the other hand the drawback of this approach is that some process parameters (i.e. volatility) may be poorly estimated, because they do not have a strong effect on futures prices. This paper explores the use of option prices (in addition to futures prices) to estimate commodity stochastic prices and discusses preliminary evidence on the behavior of the proposed models for valuing option-like assets.

Jean-Daniel Saphores (U. California, Irvine), The Option Value of Harvesting a Renewable Resource

We analyze multi-period harvest problems for a renewable resource under biological uncertainty when harvesting is size-dependant. First, we show that the decision to harvest can be modeled as a real option and we derive analytical expressions for the value of the resource stock and the mean time between harvests, with and without uncertainty. We then illustrate numerically how uncertainty affects the decision to harvest: when uncertainty increases from zero, the amount harvested and the stock biomass at harvest first increase, and then decrease because of the risk of extinction when uncertainty is high enough. This paper is a first step towards defining sustainable harvesting rules under uncertainty.

Competition and Strategic Investments: R&D, Product Extensions and Mergers
Chairperson: Bart Lambrecht (U.

L.G. Chorn and A. Sharma (Real Options Software Inc.), Valuing Investments in Extensions to Product Lines and Service Offerings with Competitive Entry

Investments in R&D for product application extensions and in infrastructure service enhancements have interesting similarities and can be analyzed in a common template. They typically require multiyear investments in outcomes exposed to several sources of uncertainty. Technical risks, market size and acceptance, and actual capital requirements make these investments difficult, if not impossible, to evaluate with a static discounted cash flow analysis. Further complicating the initial investment decision, as well as the timing of intermediate investments, is the potential for a competitor's entry that takes market share or even eliminates demand for the product or service.
This article describes a Real Options analysis of shared options on extensions and enhancements in the energy service industry. We illustrate the analysis framework, the data requirements and the insight gained from Real Options. The material focuses on extracting managerial insight from a Real Options assessment of incremental investment programs, whose timing and success may be impacted by external market forces.

Han Smit (Erasmus U.) and Lenos Trigeorgis (U. Cyprus and U. Chicago), R&D Option Strategies

Paper, Figures


Bart Lambrecht (U. Cambridge, UK), The Timing and Terms of Mergers, Stock Offers and Cash Offers

This paper presents a real options model for the timing and terms of mergers, stock offers and cash offers under product demand uncertainty and complete information. The timing of mergers is shown to be globally efficient. Bidding causes stock offers to happen inefficiently late and pure cash offers are even more inefficient because bidding is combined with the fact that the acquiree does not hold a stake in the restructured company. The acquiree prefers stock offers, whereas the acquirer prefers mergers or cash offers. Whether restructurings happen in a rising or falling product demand movement depends on how the restructuring alters the demand elasticity of the firms' market capitalization. restructurings leading to an increase (decrease) in the firms' demand elasticity happen in a rising (falling) product market and are expansive (contractive) in nature. The paper supports the hypothesis that takeover activity is driven by economic shocks.

Panel Discussion: Challenges and Future Prospects I (Practitioner Perspectives from Consulting Firms)
Moderator: Martha Amram (independent consultant)

Panelists include:
Ari Axelrod (Boston Consulting Group)
Stephen Black (PA Consulting)
Adam Borison (ADA/PricewaterhouseCoopers)
Raul Guerrero (Accenture)
Alberto Micalizzi (Real Options Group)
Remy Schosmann (Ernst & Young)


Switching Options in Manufacturing, Supplier Contracts and Shipping Chairperson: Alex Triantis (U. Maryland)

Nahoya Takezawa (International U. Japan), The Option to Switch Scheduling Priority in Manufacturing

Consider a group of product devices such as DRAM's of different specifications while such products can be purchased from the market at the spot price that fluctuates over time.
Because of this, a final product-maker often makes a contract with a supplier where delivery dates and prices of such devices are pre-determined. In this situation, the supplier typically ignores the price volatilities and organizes its production activities based on the delivery dates. A pr
evalent software package using MRP for example cannot take the price volatilities into account explicitly. In this paper, a theoretical framework is exhibited where the supplier determines its production schedule based on not only the delivery date and the pre-determined prices but also the price volatilities of the devices.

Bardia Kamrad, Akhtar Siddique (Georgetown U.), Risk Sharing and Supplier Switching Contracts

Using a real options framework, we value and analyze supply contracts characterized by exchange rate uncertainty, order quantity flexibility and supplier-switching options. Analogous to the portfolio optimization framework, our framework analyzes the incentives that the suppliers face in accepting order level flexibility. The resulting tradeoff (for the supplier) is a balance between greater volatility in the supply schedule and the prices that the producer pays. In this context, we explicitly model how flexibility can be beneficial to both the producer and multiple suppliers. In other words, how a contract with quantity flexibility can be Pareto optimal, with neither the producer nor the suppliers being worse off as compared to inflexible contracts. This implies that option to switch between suppliers is not costless, thus resulting in the producer having to compensate suppliers in a manner consistent with a profit maximization objective for all parties.

Sigbjorn Sodal (U. California, Santa Barbara), Entry, Exit and Scrapping Decisions with Investment Lags

Several entry-exit models under price uncertainty are discussed by a new markup approach to investment, starting with the classical model by Dixit (1989). The markup approach, introduced by Dixit et al. (1999), enables us to state the expected value of the firm in the entry-exit model as a function of a chosen pair of entry and exit trigger prices. The optimal policy appears by maximizing the value function with respect to the trigger prices. Extensions being discussed include endogenous production costs, diminishing production capacity over time, limits to the number of available switches, and various models with scrapping decisions and investment lags. The main new extension allows for an investment lag in the entry-exit-scrapping model by Dixit (1988). Implications of the investment lag are investigated by use of experimental data and empirical data from shipping. We also correct some results on investment lags from Bar-Ilan and Strange (1996).

Theoretical Issues I: Options on Information, Incomplete Information, and Non-Traded Assets
Chairperson: Michael Brennan (UCLA)

Andrew Chen (Southern
Methodist U.), James Conover and John Kensinger (U. North Texas), Virtual Options: Evaluating Options on Information

With virtual options the underlying assets are information and the rules governing exercise are based on the realities of the information realm (infosphere).Virtual options can be modeled as options to "purchase "information items by paying the cost of the information operations involved.Virtual options arise at several stages of value creation.
The initial stage involves observation of physical phenomena with accompanying data capture.The next refinement is to organize the data into structured databases.Then information is selected from storage and synthesizing it into an information product (such as a report,article,or design specifications for a product to be fabricated in the physical realm).Then the information product is presented to the user via an efficient interface that does not require the user to be a field expert.Virtual options are similar in concept to real options but substantially different in their details,since real options have physical objects as the underlying assets and the rules governing exercise are based on the realities of the physical world.Also,while exercising a financial option typically kills the option, virtual options may include multiple exercise.Virtual options may involve high volatility or jump processes as well,further enhancing their value.Application of option pricing theory to real options has yielded worthwhile tools for disciplined decision making,and the potential also is great for worthwhile decision support tools based upon virtual options.This paper extends several important real option applications into the information realm,including jump process models and models for valuing options to synthesize any of n information items into any of m output products.

Spiros Martzoukos (U. Cyprus) and Lenos Trigeorgis (U. Cyprus and U. Chicago), Resolving a Real Options Paradox with Incomplete Information: After All, Why Learn?

In this paper we discuss a real options paradox of managerial intervention directed towards learning and information acquisition: since options are in general increasing functions of volatility whereas learning reduces uncertainty, why would we want to learn? Examining real options with (costly) learning and path-dependency, we show that conditioning of information and optimal timing of learning leads to superior decision-making and enhances real option value.

Vicky Henderson (Warwick Business School, UK), Valuation of Claims on Non-Traded Assets

A recent topical problem is how to deal with claims on `non-traded' assets. A natural approach is to choose another similar asset or index which is traded to use for hedging purposes.
To model this situation, we introduce a second non-traded log Brownian asset into the well known Merton investment model with power-law utility. The investor has an option on units of the non-traded asset and the question is how to price and hedge this random payoff. The presence of the second Brownian motion means that we are in the situation of incomplete markets. Employing utility maximisation and duality methods we obtain an approximation to the optimal hedge and reservation price. These are computed for some example options and the results compared to those using exponential utility.

Theoretical Issues II: Options with Private Information and Incentives
Lenos Trigeorgis (U. Cyprus and U. Chicago)

Jostein Tvedt (Norwegian School of Economics and Business), Ownership Structure and Optimal Oil Field Development

The paper presents a model for the valuation of marginal offshore oil fields that are geographically close to an existing major oil production installation. The correct development strategy for these satellite oil fields is given by optimally exercising American real options to develop the fields. The most cost efficient way of developing the fields is to connect the marginal fields, e.g. via a sub-sea development, to the production unit of the main field. A problem arises by the fact that the ownership structures of the satellites are not identical for all fields. Hence, the order and timing of the development of the fields are a question of negotiations between the licensees. A non-efficient outcome of the negotiations reduces the total value of the oil fields.

Joril Maeland (Norweigian School of Economics and Business), Valuation of Irreversible Investments Involving Agents with Private Information about Stochastic Costs

An investor owns a right to invest in a project that generates positive cash flows when the investment is undertaken. Both the value of the future cash flows and the investment cost follow stochastic processes. Thus, the investment project takes the form of an exchange option of American type. In the paper we analyze this investment project when the investor needs an agent to undertake the investment of the project, and the agent has private information about the investment cost.
In the first part of the paper we assume that there is only one agent having private information, and the problem is analyzed within a principal-agent framework. The investor's problem is to optimize the compensation to the agent. To induce the agent to make the preferred investment decision, the investor needs to leave the agent some information rent.
In the second part we extend the model by assuming that n agents compete about the contract. Each agent has private information, and the competition is organized as an auction. We discuss how competition reduces the information rent and the inefficiency of the chosen investment strategy.

T. Cottrell (U. Calgary, Canada), Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Real Options

Theoretical Issues III: Modelling and Numerical Analysis
Gordon Sick (U. Calgary)

Mark Shackleton and Rafal Wojakowski (Lancaster U., UK), Reversible Flow Options with Costless Switching between Max of Two Asset Flows

In this paper we produce a formula for a finitely lived, perfectly reversible option on a flow. For this real option that allows frequent and costless switching between the maximum of two asset flows, we first examine the perpetual and then the finite cases in terms of switching thresholds and values. The finite option value is inferred from the perpetual using an annuity argument. Applications include energy and commodity consumption costs where switching between flows can occur frequently and costlessly.

Jihe Song (Napier U., UK), Modelling Real Options: A First Passage Time Approach

This paper introduces the first passage time approach to study optimal option exercise rule for geometric Brownian motion process to a boundary. I have derived analytical results on the first passage time probability, density and its expectation. The results on the first moment of the first passage time clarify some recent controversies on the sign of uncertainty on investment. The first passage time provides an alternative characterisation of optimal exercise rule. In addition, we establish a new framework for testing real option models. The approach is applicable to other stochastic modelling in finance and economics.

Greg Robel (Boeing), Real Options and Mean-Reverting Prices


Andrea Gamba (U. Verona, Italy and ROG) and Lenos Trigeorgis (U. Cyprus and U. Chicago), A Log-transformed Binomial Lattice Extension for Multi-Dimensional Option Problems

We propose a log-transformed binomial lattice approach for pricing options whose payoff depends on several state variable following a joint diffusion process. Our method extends the log-transformed approach proposed by Trigeorgis (1991) to several state variables and improves other known lattice algorithms (Boyle, Evnine and Gibbs (1989) and Kamrad and Ritchken (1991)).
The method we propose is consistent, stable and efficient. We present some applications of our method both to financial and real option pricing problems.

Panel Discussion:
Challenges and Future Prospects II
(Academic Perspectives)
Moderator: Alex Triantis (U.

Panelists include:
Bhagwan Chowdhry (UCLA)
Blake Johnson (
Stanford U.)
Robert McDonald (Northwestern U.)
Eduardo Schwartz (UCLA)
Gordon Sick (U. Calgary)
Lenos Trigeorgis (U. Cyprus, U. Chicago and ROG)

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